tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1479 at 10:15 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1479 Southwest STL 10:15 FLL 14:06 17% 4% 1.3% no record
WN 4100 Southwest STL 19:55 FLL 23:46 30% 9% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 54m Minneapolis MSP 08:50 → FLL 13:25DL 673 6h 04m 93% 81%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04DL 1626 3h 26m Detroit DTW 12:30 → FLL 15:34DL 1294 8h 04m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 11:25 → FLL 13:20DL 2063 6h 20m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 12:43 → FLL 14:39DL 1341 6h 31m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:14 → IAH 08:31UA 6283 · flown by Mesa 3h 26m Houston IAH 11:57 → FLL 15:34UA 1982 8h 20m 99% 73%
UnitedDetails → STL 11:10 → IAH 13:25UA 6213 · flown by Mesa 2h 55m Houston IAH 16:20 → FLL 20:07UA 277 7h 57m 98% 73%
AmericanDetails → STL 05:15 → CLT 08:09AA 1515 2h 50m Charlotte CLT 10:59 → FLL 13:01AA 2585 6h 46m 96% 73%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:19 → DTW 12:53DL 2868 3h 03m Detroit DTW 15:56 → FLL 19:00DL 1037 7h 41m 98% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → STL 13:43 → ORD 15:09AA 6355 · flown by SkyWest 1h 58m Chicago ORD 17:07 → FLL 21:26AA 2881 6h 43m 71% 31%
UnitedDetails → STL 15:22 → ORD 17:00UA 4452 · flown by GoJet 1h 05m Chicago ORD 18:05 → FLL 22:15UA 463 5h 53m 66% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON