tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3427 at 10:15 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3427 Southwest STL 10:15 JAX 13:24 12% 3% 0.8% no record
WN 4973 Southwest STL 20:05 JAX 23:14 30% 6% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 08:49 → MSP 10:30DL 5325 · flown by Endeavor 2h 27m Minneapolis MSP 12:57 → JAX 16:54DL 2392 7h 05m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 10:48 → JAX 12:00DL 2923 5h 00m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:19 → DTW 12:53DL 2868 2h 09m Detroit DTW 15:02 → JAX 17:27DL 2994 6h 08m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 12:37 → JAX 13:45DL 3024 5h 37m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → STL 08:35 → IAH 10:52UA 4028 · flown by Mesa 1h 18m Houston IAH 12:10 → JAX 15:37UA 4048 · flown by Mesa 6h 02m 94% 76%
DeltaDetails → STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571 1h 51m Atlanta ATL 13:53 → JAX 15:05DL 2990 4h 41m 96% 75%
AmericanDetails → STL 05:15 → CLT 08:09AA 1515 46m Charlotte CLT 08:55 → JAX 10:22AA 1466 4h 07m 89% 75%
AmericanDetails → STL 05:32 → DFW 07:30AA 2261 1h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:28 → JAX 13:01AA 2329 6h 29m 96% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → STL 15:40 → DFW 17:38AA 1363 1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:42 → JAX 22:14AA 679 5h 34m 64% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON