Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2513 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 2513 STL 05:35 → LAS 07:03 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2948 STL 19:30 → LAS 20:59 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2513 Southwest	STL 05:35	LAS 07:03	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1889 Southwest	STL 08:30	LAS 09:58	11%	3%	1.7%	no record
WN 4079 Southwest	STL 12:25	LAS 13:55	26%	7%	0.8%	no record
F9 3107 Frontier Flight history →	STL 12:17	LAS 13:58	27%	10%	2.0%	79%
WN 4467 Southwest	STL 15:20	LAS 16:51	32%	9%	0.8%	no record
WN 4509 Southwest	STL 21:45	LAS 23:22	32%	12%	0.6%	no record
WN 2948 Southwest	STL 19:30	LAS 20:59	35%	11%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON