Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 6480 at 06:12 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 6480 STL 06:12 → LAX 08:15 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest WN 4082 STL 21:55 → LAX 23:55 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6480 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STL 06:12	LAX 08:15	21%	6%	0.7%	86%
WN 3091 Southwest	STL 08:30	LAX 10:26	21%	4%	1.6%	no record
WN 4082 Southwest	STL 21:55	LAX 23:55	38%	10%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON