Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1103 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 1103 STL 05:35 → LGA 08:56 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4086 STL 19:50 → LGA 23:18 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1103 Southwest	STL 05:35	LGA 08:56	5%	1%	1.4%	no record
YX 4443 Republic	STL 09:46	LGA 13:27	16%	7%	3.3%	no record
DL 4939 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	STL 09:20	LGA 12:48	17%	5%	4.9%	86%
WN 3189 Southwest	STL 10:30	LGA 14:00	22%	6%	2.1%	no record
DL 4922 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	STL 13:05	LGA 16:33	23%	8%	1.8%	74%
YX 4449 Republic	STL 16:43	LGA 20:28	24%	12%	2.0%	no record
DL 4905 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	STL 17:26	LGA 20:52	26%	9%	1.8%	64%
WN 1934 Southwest	STL 13:40	LGA 17:10	29%	9%	1.2%	no record
WN 4086 Southwest	STL 19:50	LGA 23:18	29%	10%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON