Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4622 at 05:07 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 4622 STL 05:07 → MCO 08:31 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4094 STL 18:30 → MCO 21:54 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4622 Southwest	STL 05:07	MCO 08:31	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 4126 Southwest	STL 06:47	MCO 10:11	6%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 4091 Southwest	STL 10:15	MCO 13:39	13%	5%	1.3%	no record
WN 4092 Southwest	STL 12:35	MCO 15:59	21%	9%	1.4%	no record
WN 4812 Southwest	STL 20:07	MCO 23:31	24%	11%	0.8%	no record
F9 2636 Frontier Flight history →	STL 16:09	MCO 19:49	25%	18%	3.8%	73%
WN 1794 Southwest	STL 17:10	MCO 20:34	25%	11%	0.8%	no record
WN 4094 Southwest	STL 18:30	MCO 21:54	26%	12%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON