Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1716 at 05:18 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29–43%.

Safest bet that day AA 1716 STL 05:18 → MIA 09:15 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 477 STL 14:11 → MIA 18:02 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1716 American Flight history →	STL 05:18	MIA 09:15	10%	5%	1.0%	96%
WN 3697 Southwest	STL 20:00	MIA 23:48	29%	10%	0.7%	no record
WN 4134 Southwest	STL 10:20	MIA 14:09	30%	8%	3.2%	no record
AA 477 American	STL 14:11	MIA 18:02	43%	16%	3.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON