tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2258 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2258 Southwest STL 08:25 MKE 09:49 7% 3% 1.7% no record
WN 2383 Southwest STL 22:00 MKE 23:24 25% 9% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 2h 09m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → MKE 11:17DL 561 4h 56m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 10:51 → MKE 11:53DL 1151 5h 53m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → STL 08:49 → MSP 10:30DL 5325 · flown by Endeavor 3h 24m Minneapolis MSP 13:54 → MKE 15:09DL 2006 6h 20m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → STL 16:55 → ATL 19:46DL 543 3h 06m Atlanta ATL 22:52 → MKE 23:56DL 1268 7h 01m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 14:10 → MKE 15:09DL 2152 5h 45m 96% 79%
AmericanDetails → STL 06:14 → PHL 09:34AA 1308 1h 41m Philadelphia PHL 11:15 → MKE 12:36AA 5474 · flown by PSA 6h 22m 96% 77%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:51 → ATL 13:25DL 1400 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 16:37 → MKE 17:40DL 1206 6h 49m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:19 → DTW 12:53DL 2868 2h 57m Detroit DTW 15:50 → MKE 16:02DL 1343 5h 43m 98% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → STL 08:00 → ORD 09:35UA 4183 · flown by GoJet 54m Chicago ORD 10:29 → MKE 11:19UA 5234 · flown by SkyWest 3h 19m 66% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON