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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: American via Charlotte, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Myrtle Beach on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Myrtle Beach is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → STL 05:15 → CLT 08:09AA 1515 3h 11m Charlotte CLT 11:20 → MYR 12:36AA 5883 · flown by Piedmont 6h 21m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 11:48 → MYR 13:00DL 3182 6h 00m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → STL 06:14 → PHL 09:34AA 1308 1h 19m Philadelphia PHL 10:53 → MYR 13:02AA 6120 · flown by Piedmont 5h 48m 93% 76%
UnitedDetails → STL 07:20 → ORD 09:00UA 4423 · flown by GoJet 2h 53m Chicago ORD 11:53 → MYR 15:03UA 623 6h 43m 97% 73%
DeltaDetails → STL 16:55 → ATL 19:46DL 543 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → MYR 23:55DL 3074 6h 00m 99% 72%
AmericanDetails → STL 09:13 → CLT 12:08AA 2497 2h 32m Charlotte CLT 14:40 → MYR 15:53AA 1687 5h 40m 97% 70%
DeltaDetails → STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566 1h 41m Atlanta ATL 17:48 → MYR 19:07DL 1093 4h 45m 97% 67%
AmericanDetails → STL 11:09 → PHL 14:38AA 1739 1h 41m Philadelphia PHL 16:19 → MYR 18:20AA 5849 · flown by Piedmont 6h 18m 85% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON