Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4143 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 4143 STL 08:30 → OMA 09:58 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 668 STL 21:55 → OMA 23:23 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4143 Southwest	STL 08:30	OMA 09:58	7%	3%	1.6%	no record
WN 3933 Southwest	STL 14:40	OMA 16:08	17%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 668 Southwest	STL 21:55	OMA 23:23	28%	14%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON