Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1926 at 04:59 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 45–55%.

Safest bet that day AA 1926 STL 04:59 → ORD 06:24 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest UA 541 STL 17:35 → ORD 19:02 · 55% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 1926 American Flight history →	STL 04:59	ORD 06:24	11%	6%	1.5%	74%
AA 1997 American Flight history →	STL 07:33	ORD 09:08	17%	10%	1.9%	88%
UA 2792 United	STL 08:09	ORD 09:30	24%	9%	4.0%	no record
AA 2818 American	STL 11:07	ORD 12:30	28%	11%	2.9%	no record
OO 5917 SkyWest	STL 13:37	ORD 15:11	37%	20%	2.7%	no record
AA 6355 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STL 13:43	ORD 15:09	40%	21%	2.8%	59%
YX 4645 Republic	STL 17:08	ORD 18:42	45%	18%	6.5%	no record
OO 5332 SkyWest	STL 15:13	ORD 16:39	51%	25%	6.8%	no record
UA 541 United	STL 17:35	ORD 19:02	55%	23%	2.8%	no record
UA 4517 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	STL 10:20	ORD 11:52	10%	1%	1.4%	90%
UA 4423 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	STL 07:20	ORD 09:00	14%	6%	0.6%	86%
UA 4183 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	STL 08:00	ORD 09:35	28%	8%	0.5%	72%
UA 4395 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	STL 11:25	ORD 13:03	29%	12%	2.8%	71%
UA 4165 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	STL 19:05	ORD 20:39	30%	12%	5.7%	70%
UA 4452 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	STL 15:22	ORD 17:00	37%	17%	5.4%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON