tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:21, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 2 h behind St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 3h 03m Minneapolis MSP 10:59 → PDX 12:40DL 1661 8h 19m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206 8h 58m 98% 83%
AlaskaDetails → STL 16:42 → SEA 19:03AS 314 1h 22m Seattle SEA 20:25 → PDX 21:22AS 2387 · flown by Horizon 6h 40m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:51 → ATL 13:25DL 1400 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503 10h 05m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → STL 08:00 → SLC 10:12DL 2363 1h 03m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 6h 10m 90% 76%
UnitedDetails → STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459 2h 57m Denver DEN 13:27 → PDX 15:13UA 2455 8h 07m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → STL 04:59 → ORD 06:24AA 1926 1h 59m Chicago ORD 08:23 → PDX 11:14AA 1713 8h 15m 97% 76%
AlaskaDetails → STL 06:02 → SEA 08:30AS 473 3h 46m Seattle SEA 12:16 → PDX 13:15AS 488 9h 13m 100% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → STL 13:38 → DEN 15:00UA 1380 1h 00m Denver DEN 16:00 → PDX 17:46UA 1337 6h 08m 71% 47%
DeltaDetails → STL 14:30 → SLC 16:37DL 2455 48m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → PDX 18:18DL 1238 5h 48m 59% 42%
AmericanDetails → STL 13:43 → ORD 15:09AA 6355 · flown by SkyWest 2h 01m Chicago ORD 17:10 → PDX 19:55AA 1818 8h 12m 73% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON