Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3593 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 3593 STL 06:05 → PHX 07:21 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4114 STL 21:45 → PHX 23:10 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3593 Southwest	STL 06:05	PHX 07:21	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2976 Southwest	STL 12:15	PHX 13:32	20%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2574 American Flight history →	STL 08:01	PHX 09:17	22%	8%	2.0%	85%
WN 4112 Southwest	STL 14:40	PHX 16:02	25%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 2660 American	STL 14:24	PHX 15:45	30%	9%	1.0%	no record
WN 3438 Southwest	STL 19:05	PHX 20:29	32%	11%	0.7%	no record
WN 4114 Southwest	STL 21:45	PHX 23:10	33%	12%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON