tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 776 at 10:20 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 776 Southwest STL 10:20 PIT 13:09 9% 3% 0.9% no record
WN 4917 Southwest STL 20:00 PIT 22:49 27% 8% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345 5h 52m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → STL 04:59 → ORD 06:24AA 1926 3h 18m Chicago ORD 09:42 → PIT 12:22AA 4467 · flown by Republic 6h 23m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → STL 16:55 → ATL 19:46DL 543 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 23:04 → PIT 00:50 +1DL 1351 6h 55m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → STL 07:20 → ORD 09:00UA 4423 · flown by GoJet 3h 40m Chicago ORD 12:40 → PIT 15:23UA 3432 · flown by Republic 7h 03m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 14:08 → PIT 15:50DL 1353 5h 26m 96% 83%
AmericanDetails → STL 05:15 → CLT 08:09AA 1515 1h 46m Charlotte CLT 09:55 → PIT 11:27AA 2888 5h 12m 93% 80%
AmericanDetails → STL 05:32 → DFW 07:30AA 2261 3h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:34 → PIT 14:19AA 2664 7h 47m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:51 → ATL 13:25DL 1400 1h 58m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → PIT 17:08DL 1568 5h 17m 96% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → STL 08:00 → ORD 09:35UA 4183 · flown by GoJet 50m Chicago ORD 10:25 → PIT 12:59UA 2752 3h 59m 60% 48%
UnitedDetails → STL 15:22 → ORD 17:00UA 4452 · flown by GoJet 1h 05m Chicago ORD 18:05 → PIT 20:51UA 1946 4h 29m 66% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON