tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 2532 at 17:10, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2532 Southwest STL 17:10 PNS 19:09 21% 7% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 2h 01m Atlanta ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198 4h 51m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → PNS 12:41DL 1640 5h 33m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → STL 08:35 → IAH 10:52UA 4028 · flown by Mesa 3h 28m Houston IAH 14:20 → PNS 16:06UA 4869 · flown by CommuteAir 7h 31m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 15:00 → PNS 15:13DL 1013 5h 49m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:51 → ATL 13:25DL 1400 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211 6h 12m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → STL 16:55 → ATL 19:46DL 543 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 23:28 → PNS 23:43DL 2807 6h 48m 100% 77%
DeltaDetails → STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 19:49 → PNS 20:04DL 3021 6h 42m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → STL 07:20 → ORD 09:00UA 4423 · flown by GoJet 1h 42m Chicago ORD 10:42 → PNS 13:05UA 2492 5h 45m 94% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON