tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4118 at 10:15 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4118 Southwest STL 10:15 RDU 13:17 11% 3% 1.1% no record
WN 1840 Southwest STL 19:55 RDU 22:57 33% 9% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 1h 27m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → RDU 11:38DL 2052 4h 38m 97% 89%
AmericanDetails → STL 04:59 → ORD 06:24AA 1926 1h 54m Chicago ORD 08:18 → RDU 11:38AA 4354 · flown by Republic 5h 39m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04DL 1626 1h 11m Detroit DTW 10:15 → RDU 11:57DL 2164 4h 27m 95% 86%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 2h 25m Minneapolis MSP 10:21 → RDU 13:51DL 2521 6h 30m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536 1h 27m Atlanta ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488 4h 34m 94% 84%
DeltaDetails → STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550 5h 56m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → STL 05:15 → CLT 08:09AA 1515 2h 43m Charlotte CLT 10:52 → RDU 11:55AA 2688 5h 40m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:19 → DTW 12:53DL 2868 3h 09m Detroit DTW 16:02 → RDU 17:47DL 1407 6h 28m 98% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → STL 17:51 → PHL 21:21AA 3049 1h 03m Philadelphia PHL 22:24 → RDU 23:58AA 2692 5h 07m 70% 50%
DeltaDetails → STL 12:35 → LGA 16:13DL 4922 · flown by Endeavor 58m New York LGA 17:11 → RDU 19:19DL 5101 · flown by Endeavor 5h 44m 74% 38%
AmericanDetails → STL 13:43 → ORD 15:09AA 6355 · flown by SkyWest 56m Chicago ORD 16:05 → RDU 19:17AA 4503 · flown by Republic 4h 34m 60% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON