tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 13:38, is the safest bet: 39% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3661 Southwest STL 08:30 SAN 10:18 24% 3% 1.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 3h 42m Minneapolis MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125 9h 03m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 9h 08m 98% 74%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:14 → IAH 08:31UA 6283 · flown by Mesa 3h 29m Houston IAH 12:00 → SAN 13:21UA 2399 9h 07m 99% 72%
DeltaDetails → STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 15:37 → SAN 17:12DL 924 9h 48m 99% 70%
UnitedDetails → STL 08:35 → IAH 10:52UA 4028 · flown by Mesa 3h 25m Houston IAH 14:17 → SAN 15:39UA 1114 9h 04m 99% 69%
UnitedDetails → STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459 3h 00m Denver DEN 13:30 → SAN 14:55UA 1302 7h 49m 97% 68%
UnitedDetails → STL 11:10 → IAH 13:25UA 6213 · flown by Mesa 3h 07m Houston IAH 16:32 → SAN 18:05UA 2798 8h 55m 99% 68%
DeltaDetails → STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566 1h 54m Atlanta ATL 18:01 → SAN 19:36DL 712 8h 14m 98% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → STL 16:42 → SEA 19:03AS 314 1h 04m Seattle SEA 20:07 → SAN 22:55AS 254 8h 13m 70% 42%
DeltaDetails → STL 19:55 → SLC 22:05DL 1492 50m Salt Lake City SLC 22:55 → SAN 23:50DL 1202 5h 55m 59% 39%
UnitedDetails → STL 13:38 → DEN 15:00UA 1380 55m Denver DEN 15:55 → SAN 17:20UA 1281 5h 42m 61% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON