tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 54% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 44% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 573 United STL 07:05 SFO 09:26 23% 7% 0.7% no record
WN 4931 Southwest STL 08:25 SFO 10:46 28% 8% 1.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → STL 08:43 → IAD 11:55UA 4506 · flown by GoJet 2h 56m Dulles IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862 10h 55m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 3h 04m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 8h 48m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750 9h 42m 97% 73%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:16 → IAH 08:42UA 1371 3h 55m Houston IAH 12:37 → SFO 14:43UA 2611 10h 27m 100% 71%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04DL 1626 3h 11m Detroit DTW 12:15 → SFO 14:17DL 469 9h 47m 98% 71%
UnitedDetails → STL 11:10 → IAH 13:25UA 6213 · flown by Mesa 2h 05m Houston IAH 15:30 → SFO 17:35UA 589 8h 25m 97% 71%
AmericanDetails → STL 07:32 → CLT 10:30AA 712 2h 00m Charlotte CLT 12:30 → SFO 14:57AA 1489 9h 25m 93% 70%
AmericanDetails → STL 05:15 → CLT 08:09AA 1515 1h 24m Charlotte CLT 09:33 → SFO 12:08AA 2428 8h 53m 93% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → STL 08:00 → ORD 09:35UA 4183 · flown by GoJet 50m Chicago ORD 10:25 → SFO 13:14UA 543 7h 14m 60% 42%
AlaskaDetails → STL 16:42 → SEA 19:03AS 314 57m Seattle SEA 20:00 → SFO 22:09AS 619 7h 27m 60% 32%
UnitedDetails → STL 13:38 → DEN 15:00UA 1380 47m Denver DEN 15:47 → SFO 17:30UA 2633 5h 52m 44% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON