tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 4% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2764 Southwest STL 08:25 SMF 10:39 15% 4% 1.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 2h 28m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 7h 48m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → STL 08:00 → SLC 10:12DL 2363 1h 23m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 6h 16m 94% 76%
UnitedDetails → STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459 1h 22m Denver DEN 11:52 → SMF 13:36UA 2673 6h 30m 89% 72%
AmericanDetails → STL 07:07 → DFW 09:06AA 537 2h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:45 → SMF 13:28AA 2078 8h 21m 97% 69%
AmericanDetails → STL 05:32 → DFW 07:30AA 2261 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:23 → SMF 10:06AA 2081 6h 34m 88% 67%
AlaskaDetails → STL 06:02 → SEA 08:30AS 473 3h 18m Seattle SEA 11:48 → SMF 13:41AS 772 9h 39m 99% 67%
AlaskaDetails → STL 16:42 → SEA 19:03AS 314 2h 53m Seattle SEA 21:56 → SMF 23:50AS 722 9h 08m 100% 66%
DeltaDetails → STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 17:59 → SMF 19:53DL 743 8h 31m 98% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → STL 19:55 → SLC 22:05DL 1492 59m Salt Lake City SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582 5h 49m 71% 54%
UnitedDetails → STL 13:38 → DEN 15:00UA 1380 1h 03m Denver DEN 16:03 → SMF 17:41UA 1208 6h 03m 73% 44%
AlaskaDetails → STL 16:42 → SEA 19:03AS 314 46m Seattle SEA 19:49 → SMF 21:43AS 681 7h 01m 4% 3%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON