Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 3795 at 14:00, with a 27% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3795 Southwest	STL 14:00	SRQ 17:32	27%	8%	2.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104	4h 44m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 13:43 → SRQ 15:22DL 3115	7h 14m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	STL 16:55 → ATL 19:46DL 543	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 23:07 → SRQ 00:45 +1DL 2997	6h 50m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 15:34 → SRQ 17:13DL 3109	6h 49m	99%	75%
American Details →	STL 05:15 → CLT 08:09AA 1515	1h 07m Charlotte	CLT 09:16 → SRQ 11:10AA 1452	4h 55m	93%	70%
United Details →	STL 07:20 → ORD 09:00UA 4423 · flown by GoJet	2h 10m Chicago	ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287	6h 52m	96%	70%
American Details →	STL 12:43 → CLT 15:35AA 3096	3h 32m Charlotte	CLT 19:07 → SRQ 21:02AA 2604	7h 19m	100%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON