tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 1287 at 16:10, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1287 Southwest STL 16:10 VPS 18:12 22% 7% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 1h 37m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048 4h 29m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → STL 16:55 → ATL 19:46DL 543 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097 6h 34m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 15:43 → VPS 16:00DL 2170 6h 36m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803 5h 20m 97% 80%
AmericanDetails → STL 05:32 → DFW 07:30AA 2261 2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:30 → VPS 11:28AA 2460 5h 56m 96% 74%
AmericanDetails → STL 12:43 → CLT 15:35AA 3096 1h 27m Charlotte CLT 17:02 → VPS 17:50AA 5201 · flown by PSA 5h 07m 96% 71%
AmericanDetails → STL 07:07 → DFW 09:06AA 537 3h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:46 → VPS 14:43AA 2501 7h 36m 99% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → STL 16:55 → ATL 19:46DL 543 49m Atlanta ATL 20:35 → VPS 20:49DL 882 3h 54m 70% 54%
AmericanDetails → STL 15:40 → DFW 17:38AA 1363 1h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:05 → VPS 21:05AA 1201 5h 25m 74% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON