Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 3766 at 12:42, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3766 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	STS 12:42	DFW 18:20	24%	9%	1.1%	95%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 2 h ahead of Santa Rosa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	STS 13:11 → PHX 15:24AA 3757 · flown by Envoy	3h 18m Phoenix	PHX 18:42 → DFW 23:16AA 556	8h 05m	100%	61%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	STS 13:11 → PHX 15:24AA 3757 · flown by Envoy	51m Phoenix	PHX 16:15 → DFW 20:53AA 1663	5h 42m	46%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON