Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1568 at 10:30 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 32%.

Safest bet that day WN 1568 STS 10:30 → LAS 12:13 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 554 STS 14:00 → LAS 15:44 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 1568 Southwest	STS 10:30	LAS 12:13	18%	6%	0.7%	no record
AS 554 Alaska	STS 14:00	LAS 15:44	32%	11%	2.2%	no record
AS 2459 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	STS 13:06	LAS 14:44	8%	2%	0.0%	92%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON