Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, OO 3032 at 15:28, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 3032 SkyWest	STS 15:28	ONT 17:13	18%	10%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	STS 18:39 → PDX 20:27AS 3371 · flown by SkyWest	1h 07m Portland	PDX 21:34 → ONT 00:05 +1AS 534	5h 26m	86%	69%
American Details →	STS 13:11 → PHX 15:25AA 3757 · flown by Envoy	1h 29m Phoenix	PHX 16:54 → ONT 18:20AA 1666	5h 09m	100%	60%
American Details →	STS 12:42 → DFW 18:21AA 3766 · flown by Envoy	1h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:59 → ONT 21:12AA 2147	8h 30m	76%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON