Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 14–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 3335 STS 08:09 → PDX 09:58 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3399 STS 15:10 → PDX 16:58 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 3335 SkyWest	STS 08:09	PDX 09:58	14%	7%	1.6%	no record
AS 3371 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STS 18:39	PDX 20:27	15%	6%	0.9%	90%
OO 3399 SkyWest	STS 15:10	PDX 16:58	15%	7%	0.9%	no record
AS 2331 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	STS 19:03	PDX 20:36	49%	21%	2.1%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON