Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4135 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 4135 STS 06:10 → SAN 07:56 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3327 STS 16:37 → SAN 18:20 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4135 Southwest	STS 06:10	SAN 07:56	9%	2%	1.2%	no record
OO 3349 SkyWest	STS 06:29	SAN 08:16	17%	8%	4.1%	no record
OO 3141 SkyWest	STS 16:37	SAN 18:27	32%	10%	2.3%	no record
WN 3327 Southwest	STS 16:37	SAN 18:20	34%	9%	0.8%	no record
AS 2257 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	STS 17:56	SAN 19:35	58%	18%	3.8%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON