tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: AS 513 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 24% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 41%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 513 Alaska STS 07:00 SEA 08:56 24% 6% 1.9% no record
AS 1348 Alaska STS 19:09 SEA 21:09 41% 12% 1.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → STS 18:39 → PDX 20:27AS 3371 · flown by SkyWest 1h 03m Portland PDX 21:30 → SEA 22:27AS 2421 · flown by Horizon 3h 48m 85% 76%
AlaskaDetails → STS 11:59 → LAX 13:37AS 3060 · flown by SkyWest 2h 23m Los Angeles LAX 16:00 → SEA 18:34AS 585 6h 35m 100% 62%
AlaskaDetails → STS 08:30 → SNA 10:12AS 3287 · flown by SkyWest 1h 53m Santa Ana SNA 12:05 → SEA 14:54AS 548 6h 24m 89% 59%
AlaskaDetails → STS 13:06 → LAS 14:44AS 2459 · flown by Horizon 1h 12m Las Vegas LAS 15:56 → SEA 18:29AS 738 5h 23m 94% 51%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → STS 19:03 → PDX 20:36AS 2331 · flown by Horizon 54m Portland PDX 21:30 → SEA 22:27AS 2421 · flown by Horizon 3h 24m 50% 44%
AlaskaDetails → STS 17:56 → SAN 19:35AS 2257 · flown by Horizon 1h 33m San Diego SAN 21:08 → SEA 23:58AS 622 6h 02m 74% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON