Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 15:33, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Charlotte Amalie). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STT 15:33 → ATL 19:30DL 1883	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → DFW 00:13 +1DL 818	9h 40m	97%	72%
American Details →	STT 13:48 → MIA 16:50AA 943	2h 46m Miami	MIA 19:36 → DFW 21:49AA 2289	9h 01m	97%	54%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	STT 13:48 → MIA 16:50AA 943	46m Miami	MIA 17:36 → DFW 19:42AA 2828	6h 54m	57%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON