Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 4136 at 14:45, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4136 Southwest	STT 14:45	MCO 18:01	24%	9%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STT 15:33 → ATL 19:30DL 1883	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 22:25 → MCO 23:58DL 1162	8h 25m	96%	65%
JetBlue Details →	STT 15:38 → SJU 16:20B6 435	2h 21m San Juan	SJU 18:41 → MCO 21:52B6 2134	6h 14m	94%	62%
American Details →	STT 13:48 → MIA 16:50AA 943	2h 29m Miami	MIA 19:19 → MCO 20:38AA 2803	6h 50m	97%	55%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	STT 15:33 → ATL 19:30DL 1883	47m Atlanta	ATL 20:17 → MCO 21:55DL 1735	6h 22m	69%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON