Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1235 at 06:07 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 1235 SYR 06:07 → CLT 08:17 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 1946 SYR 19:44 → CLT 21:55 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1235 American Flight history →	SYR 06:07	CLT 08:17	9%	3%	1.2%	81%
AA 2730 American Flight history →	SYR 11:54	CLT 14:08	15%	4%	0.9%	93%
AA 1950 American	SYR 16:16	CLT 18:27	20%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 1946 American	SYR 19:44	CLT 21:55	23%	6%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON