Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 533 at 07:16, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 533 American Flight history →	SYR 07:16	DFW 09:50	11%	4%	1.2%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Syracuse). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SYR 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 1108	1h 29m Atlanta	ATL 09:52 → DFW 11:12DL 961	6h 12m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	SYR 06:00 → LGA 07:14DL 5355 · flown by Endeavor	2h 16m New York	LGA 09:30 → DFW 12:09DL 856	7h 09m	93%	78%
American Details →	SYR 06:00 → PHL 07:20AA 6095 · flown by Piedmont	3h 24m Philadelphia	PHL 10:44 → DFW 13:21AA 3326	8h 21m	94%	77%
American Details →	SYR 06:07 → CLT 08:17AA 1235	2h 57m Charlotte	CLT 11:14 → DFW 13:07AA 2747	8h 00m	98%	76%
American Details →	SYR 11:25 → BOS 12:44AA 4635 · flown by Republic	2h 01m Boston	BOS 14:45 → DFW 17:54AA 1442	7h 29m	99%	73%
United Details →	SYR 14:40 → IAD 16:06UA 4505 · flown by GoJet	1h 54m Dulles	IAD 18:00 → DFW 20:25UA 2116	6h 45m	100%	71%
American Details →	SYR 10:47 → PHL 12:04AA 5982 · flown by Piedmont	2h 56m Philadelphia	PHL 15:00 → DFW 17:50AA 402	8h 03m	96%	68%
Delta Details →	SYR 18:54 → ATL 21:28DL 2690	1h 26m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → DFW 00:13 +1DL 818	6h 19m	91%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SYR 10:30 → IAD 11:55UA 4840 · flown by CommuteAir	46m Dulles	IAD 12:41 → DFW 15:05UA 1564	5h 35m	73%	60%
American Details →	SYR 11:54 → CLT 14:08AA 2730	56m Charlotte	CLT 15:04 → DFW 16:58AA 1709	6h 04m	68%	49%
American Details →	SYR 10:47 → PHL 12:04AA 5982 · flown by Piedmont	48m Philadelphia	PHL 12:52 → DFW 15:31AA 415	5h 44m	54%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON