tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: B6 1655 at 08:26 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
B6 1655 JetBlue SYR 08:26 MCO 11:25 11% 4% 0.9% no record
B6 2655 JetBlue Flight history → SYR 16:15 MCO 19:20 22% 11% 1.2% 71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SYR 06:21 → DTW 07:54DL 2091 2h 41m Detroit DTW 10:35 → MCO 13:08DL 1747 6h 47m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → SYR 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 1108 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → MCO 12:00DL 664 6h 00m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → SYR 06:07 → CLT 08:17AA 1235 2h 42m Charlotte CLT 10:59 → MCO 12:39AA 1576 6h 32m 98% 79%
JetBlueDetails → SYR 07:00 → BOS 08:06B6 374 2h 27m Boston BOS 10:33 → MCO 13:43B6 651 6h 43m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → SYR 05:30 → JFK 06:52DL 5363 · flown by Endeavor 3h 01m New York JFK 09:53 → MCO 12:51DL 2019 7h 21m 97% 75%
AmericanDetails → SYR 06:00 → PHL 07:20AA 6095 · flown by Piedmont 1h 24m Philadelphia PHL 08:44 → MCO 11:16AA 2084 5h 16m 90% 75%
JetBlueDetails → SYR 06:00 → JFK 07:12B6 1515 2h 55m New York JFK 10:07 → MCO 12:55B6 183 6h 55m 98% 74%
UnitedDetails → SYR 10:30 → IAD 11:55UA 4840 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 56m Dulles IAD 15:51 → MCO 18:22UA 2861 7h 52m 93% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SYR 11:54 → CLT 14:08AA 2730 53m Charlotte CLT 15:01 → MCO 16:51AA 1611 4h 57m 62% 42%
AmericanDetails → SYR 10:47 → PHL 12:04AA 5982 · flown by Piedmont 49m Philadelphia PHL 12:53 → MCO 15:23AA 3153 4h 36m 55% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON