Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: MQ 3366 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–41%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3366 SYR 06:01 → ORD 07:15 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1440 SYR 17:47 → ORD 19:00 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


MQ 3366 Envoy	SYR 06:01	ORD 07:15	10%	4%	1.2%	no record
UA 342 United	SYR 06:04	ORD 07:18	10%	6%	1.1%	no record
YX 4648 Republic	SYR 13:05	ORD 14:24	23%	7%	2.3%	no record
OO 5811 SkyWest	SYR 12:41	ORD 14:01	28%	12%	3.0%	no record
MQ 3631 Envoy	SYR 17:06	ORD 18:34	35%	17%	2.7%	no record
UA 1440 United	SYR 17:47	ORD 19:00	41%	19%	1.8%	no record
UA 4600 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	SYR 11:56	ORD 13:15	22%	10%	3.4%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON