Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 18 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2743 at 05:13 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–36%.

Safest bet that day DL 2743 TPA 05:13 → ATL 06:56 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2723 TPA 16:46 → ATL 18:37 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2743 Delta	TPA 05:13	ATL 06:56	5%	2%	1.0%	no record
DL 1726 Delta Flight history →	TPA 06:15	ATL 07:50	9%	2%	1.0%	88%
WN 212 Southwest	TPA 09:55	ATL 11:33	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 744 Delta Flight history →	TPA 08:45	ATL 10:15	12%	3%	1.0%	90%
DL 1486 Delta Flight history →	TPA 07:30	ATL 09:07	13%	3%	1.0%	91%
DL 2605 Delta Flight history →	TPA 10:00	ATL 11:35	14%	3%	1.0%	90%
DL 1227 Delta Flight history →	TPA 11:14	ATL 12:53	14%	3%	1.1%	86%
F9 1853 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 07:00	ATL 09:01	15%	6%	1.6%	74%
DL 1587 Delta Flight history →	TPA 12:34	ATL 14:10	25%	4%	1.2%	80%
DL 1525 Delta Flight history →	TPA 15:18	ATL 16:54	27%	5%	1.1%	72%
DL 1594 Delta Flight history →	TPA 20:02	ATL 21:49	27%	7%	1.2%	71%
DL 1099 Delta Flight history →	TPA 13:44	ATL 15:23	28%	6%	1.3%	82%
DL 1425 Delta Flight history →	TPA 19:04	ATL 21:06	28%	7%	1.1%	79%
F9 4435 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 14:25	ATL 16:16	32%	15%	2.2%	63%
DL 759 Delta Flight history →	TPA 18:03	ATL 19:48	33%	8%	1.2%	70%
DL 1720 Delta Flight history →	TPA 16:39	ATL 18:16	33%	6%	1.2%	80%worse than usual
WN 3848 Southwest	TPA 19:25	ATL 21:02	36%	10%	0.8%	no record
F9 2723 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 16:46	ATL 18:37	36%	15%	1.7%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON