Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4139 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 4139 TPA 05:00 → AUS 06:37 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 142 TPA 18:25 → AUS 20:02 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4139 Southwest	TPA 05:00	AUS 06:37	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1363 Southwest	TPA 11:35	AUS 13:12	18%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 487 Delta Flight history →	TPA 12:44	AUS 14:26	25%	4%	1.2%	83%
OO 3508 SkyWest	TPA 18:59	AUS 20:52	27%	10%	1.3%	no record
WN 142 Southwest	TPA 18:25	AUS 20:02	38%	11%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON