tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 2051 at 10:15, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2051 Southwest TPA 10:15 BDL 13:10 12% 4% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hartford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → BDL 12:48DL 1082 6h 33m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08DL 808 3h 27m Detroit DTW 14:35 → BDL 16:18DL 2814 7h 48m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → TPA 06:56 → DCA 09:22AA 2385 3h 37m Washington DCA 12:59 → BDL 14:27AA 5059 · flown by PSA 7h 31m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 13:56 → BDL 16:16DL 2739 6h 16m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → TPA 07:15 → CLT 09:07AA 2538 2h 23m Charlotte CLT 11:30 → BDL 13:33AA 2741 6h 18m 96% 77%
UnitedDetails → TPA 07:22 → ORD 09:22UA 2189 1h 41m Chicago ORD 11:03 → BDL 14:24UA 2195 7h 02m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:53DL 1227 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 15:34 → BDL 17:59DL 2735 6h 45m 99% 75%
AmericanDetails → TPA 16:05 → PHL 18:48AA 809 3h 44m Philadelphia PHL 22:32 → BDL 23:54AA 3195 7h 49m 95% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TPA 16:05 → PHL 18:48AA 809 56m Philadelphia PHL 19:44 → BDL 21:22AA 6107 · flown by Piedmont 5h 17m 62% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON