tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3472 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3472 Southwest TPA 08:10 BHM 08:49 8% 2% 0.8% no record
WN 1901 Southwest TPA 17:20 BHM 18:00 28% 9% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017 4h 40m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → BHM 09:57DL 3164 4h 42m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 13:31 → BHM 13:24DL 3012 4h 24m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:41 → DTW 13:23DL 2852 2h 28m Detroit DTW 15:51 → BHM 16:55DL 4647 · flown by Endeavor 7h 14m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:53DL 1227 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 15:14 → BHM 15:10DL 3163 4h 56m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → TPA 15:29 → CLT 17:17AA 2915 3h 44m Charlotte CLT 21:01 → BHM 21:32AA 5205 · flown by PSA 7h 03m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → TPA 18:03 → ATL 19:48DL 759 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 23:05 → BHM 23:02DL 2034 5h 59m 96% 76%
DeltaDetails → TPA 16:39 → ATL 18:16DL 1720 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 21:44 → BHM 21:40DL 2257 6h 01m 97% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TPA 16:05 → PHL 18:48AA 809 1h 18m Philadelphia PHL 20:06 → BHM 21:36AA 5357 · flown by PSA 6h 31m 75% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON