Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4175 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 4175 TPA 05:55 → BNA 06:54 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 3639 TPA 18:07 → BNA 19:14 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4175 Southwest	TPA 05:55	BNA 06:54	3%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 4623 Southwest	TPA 08:45	BNA 09:44	6%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 3882 Southwest	TPA 10:30	BNA 11:29	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3642 Envoy	TPA 12:33	BNA 13:37	18%	6%	1.5%	no record
WN 237 Southwest	TPA 14:15	BNA 15:14	22%	8%	1.4%	no record
WN 4724 Southwest	TPA 16:15	BNA 17:14	24%	7%	0.7%	no record
WN 4512 Southwest	TPA 20:50	BNA 21:49	25%	9%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3639 Envoy	TPA 18:07	BNA 19:14	26%	9%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON