tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 830 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 830 Southwest TPA 08:20 BUF 11:08 9% 2% 1.0% no record
WN 3756 Southwest TPA 19:50 BUF 22:37 26% 9% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
JetBlueDetails → TPA 06:30 → BOS 09:33B6 1192 2h 29m Boston BOS 12:02 → BUF 13:49B6 915 7h 19m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 1h 20m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → BUF 11:11DL 1384 4h 56m 93% 81%
UnitedDetails → TPA 09:00 → IAD 11:22UA 2331 1h 37m Dulles IAD 12:59 → BUF 14:25UA 4335 · flown by CommuteAir 5h 25m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:05 → JFK 09:51DL 2475 3h 38m New York JFK 13:29 → BUF 15:09DL 5296 · flown by Endeavor 8h 04m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → BUF 16:03DL 2266 6h 03m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → TPA 08:36 → CLT 10:25AA 1704 2h 40m Charlotte CLT 13:05 → BUF 14:54AA 2442 6h 18m 98% 76%
JetBlueDetails → TPA 07:16 → JFK 10:04B6 226 3h 25m New York JFK 13:29 → BUF 14:59B6 2902 7h 43m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → TPA 16:05 → PHL 18:48AA 809 3h 32m Philadelphia PHL 22:20 → BUF 23:53AA 5911 · flown by Piedmont 7h 48m 95% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → TPA 19:04 → ATL 21:06DL 1425 46m Atlanta ATL 21:52 → BUF 23:59DL 2334 4h 55m 56% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON