Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 156 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27%.

Safest bet that day WN 156 TPA 05:20 → BWI 07:52 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1538 TPA 20:06 → BWI 22:45 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 156 Southwest	TPA 05:20	BWI 07:52	3%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 3095 Southwest	TPA 08:47	BWI 11:19	6%	2%	1.1%	no record
WN 2795 Southwest	TPA 11:30	BWI 14:01	12%	4%	1.1%	no record
WN 4153 Southwest	TPA 14:50	BWI 17:20	23%	8%	1.8%	no record
WN 4338 Southwest	TPA 19:34	BWI 22:04	27%	11%	1.3%	no record
F9 1538 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 20:06	BWI 22:45	27%	9%	2.0%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON