Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: F9 2684 at 10:07 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–27%.

Safest bet that day F9 2684 TPA 10:07 → CLE 12:44 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest F9 2184 TPA 21:52 → CLE 00:27 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 2684 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 10:07	CLE 12:44	16%	6%	1.5%	86%
F9 1832 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 13:47	CLE 16:27	23%	8%	2.6%	77%
F9 2184 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 21:52	CLE 00:27	27%	9%	1.3%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON