Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 653 at 05:43 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 653 TPA 05:43 → CLT 07:31 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1974 TPA 19:24 → CLT 21:15 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 653 American	TPA 05:43	CLT 07:31	8%	4%	1.7%	no record
AA 2538 American Flight history →	TPA 07:15	CLT 09:07	12%	5%	1.9%	94%
AA 1704 American Flight history →	TPA 08:36	CLT 10:25	15%	5%	1.9%	91%
AA 1975 American	TPA 10:05	CLT 11:52	17%	5%	1.7%	no record
AA 2710 American Flight history →	TPA 12:00	CLT 13:48	23%	6%	1.8%	80%
AA 436 American Flight history →	TPA 13:47	CLT 15:34	29%	7%	2.6%	84%worse than usual
AA 2915 American Flight history →	TPA 15:29	CLT 17:17	30%	8%	1.6%	75%
AA 1982 American	TPA 16:59	CLT 18:52	31%	7%	1.6%	no record
AA 1974 American	TPA 19:24	CLT 21:15	39%	9%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON