Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 26–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1679 Delta Flight history →	TPA 18:25	CVG 20:42	26%	9%	1.1%	74%
F9 1381 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 18:52	CVG 21:16	30%	16%	1.1%	51%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TPA 07:00 → BOS 10:09DL 2406	1h 27m Boston	BOS 11:36 → CVG 14:12DL 5598 · flown by Republic	7h 12m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263	2h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 12:47 → CVG 15:39DL 1776	7h 54m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → CVG 11:28DL 3160	5h 13m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486	1h 52m Atlanta	ATL 10:59 → CVG 12:22DL 3149	4h 52m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08DL 808	2h 52m Detroit	DTW 14:00 → CVG 15:16DL 5446 · flown by Endeavor	6h 46m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → CVG 15:11DL 3169	5h 11m	98%	79%
United Details →	TPA 09:00 → EWR 11:51UA 2204	2h 02m Newark	EWR 13:53 → CVG 16:02UA 3455 · flown by Republic	7h 02m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	TPA 09:11 → RDU 11:04DL 1279	3h 51m Raleigh/Durham	RDU 14:55 → CVG 16:41DL 4911 · flown by Endeavor	7h 30m	99%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	TPA 13:47 → CLT 15:34AA 436	53m Charlotte	CLT 16:27 → CVG 17:55AA 5293 · flown by PSA	4h 08m	61%	44%
American Details →	TPA 16:05 → PHL 18:48AA 809	52m Philadelphia	PHL 19:40 → CVG 21:53AA 5583 · flown by PSA	5h 48m	61%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON