Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2385 at 06:56 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 2385 TPA 06:56 → DCA 09:22 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AA 1944 TPA 18:55 → DCA 21:20 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2385 American Flight history →	TPA 06:56	DCA 09:22	8%	3%	1.5%	100%
AA 1972 American	TPA 11:55	DCA 14:34	18%	6%	1.7%	no record
AA 1990 American	TPA 13:28	DCA 15:53	27%	8%	2.3%	no record
WN 4162 Southwest	TPA 16:00	DCA 18:21	29%	10%	1.4%	no record
AA 1944 American Flight history →	TPA 18:55	DCA 21:20	38%	13%	2.6%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON