Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4163 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 4163 TPA 05:15 → DEN 06:59 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4166 TPA 18:05 → DEN 19:51 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4163 Southwest	TPA 05:15	DEN 06:59	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1812 United	TPA 07:58	DEN 09:47	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 2136 Southwest	TPA 10:40	DEN 12:28	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
F9 1113 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 06:11	DEN 08:09	14%	4%	1.4%	85%
UA 683 United Flight history →	TPA 12:26	DEN 14:36	20%	8%	0.7%	87%
F9 2745 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 20:20	DEN 22:29	29%	9%	1.6%	75%
UA 1076 United	TPA 16:11	DEN 18:00	41%	13%	0.7%	no record
WN 4166 Southwest	TPA 18:05	DEN 19:51	42%	13%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON