Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1369 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 1369 TPA 07:00 → DFW 08:49 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2512 TPA 19:45 → DFW 21:36 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1369 American Flight history →	TPA 07:00	DFW 08:49	11%	5%	1.9%	90%
AA 1628 American	TPA 09:10	DFW 10:59	14%	6%	1.6%	no record
AA 2516 American Flight history →	TPA 11:20	DFW 13:06	17%	7%	1.5%	77%
F9 1333 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 12:09	DFW 14:06	21%	9%	2.4%	84%
AA 3112 American Flight history →	TPA 14:33	DFW 16:24	29%	10%	1.8%	78%
AA 1957 American	TPA 17:08	DFW 18:55	30%	12%	1.7%	no record
AA 2512 American Flight history →	TPA 19:45	DFW 21:36	35%	13%	1.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON