Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2439 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 2439 TPA 06:10 → EWR 08:56 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 1117 TPA 16:01 → EWR 19:02 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2439 United Flight history →	TPA 06:10	EWR 08:56	7%	3%	1.0%	96%
UA 2679 United	TPA 06:58	EWR 09:44	8%	3%	1.1%	no record
UA 2204 United Flight history →	TPA 09:00	EWR 11:51	13%	5%	1.2%	85%
UA 2858 United Flight history →	TPA 11:15	EWR 14:06	21%	8%	1.4%	87%
UA 1321 United Flight history →	TPA 16:20	EWR 19:04	36%	16%	1.2%	94%worse than usual
UA 392 United	TPA 19:10	EWR 21:54	36%	15%	1.1%	no record
UA 1117 United	TPA 16:01	EWR 19:02	37%	17%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON