Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: B6 1906 at 07:38 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–36%.

Safest bet that day B6 1906 TPA 07:38 → FLL 08:43 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest B6 2076 TPA 15:30 → FLL 16:36 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1906 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 07:38	FLL 08:43	13%	5%	2.2%	91%
WN 4193 Southwest	TPA 09:20	FLL 10:30	17%	5%	3.4%	no record
B6 2076 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 15:30	FLL 16:36	36%	13%	3.7%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON