Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4468 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 4468 TPA 05:25 → HOU 06:44 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time Riskiest WN 4170 TPA 20:20 → HOU 21:52 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4468 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 05:25	HOU 06:44	5%	2%	1.7%	65%
WN 3357 Southwest	TPA 12:05	HOU 13:37	21%	5%	1.2%	no record
WN 4170 Southwest	TPA 20:20	HOU 21:52	27%	9%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON