Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, B6 548 at 19:57, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 548 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 19:57	HPN 22:55	22%	10%	1.2%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach White Plains on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263	3h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 13:14 → HPN 16:56DL 4680 · flown by Endeavor	9h 11m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08DL 808	3h 15m Detroit	DTW 14:23 → HPN 16:13DL 4658 · flown by Endeavor	7h 43m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 12:10 → HPN 14:36DL 5435 · flown by Endeavor	7h 06m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → HPN 12:21DL 2973	6h 06m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:53DL 1227	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 15:50 → HPN 18:16DL 5013 · flown by Endeavor	7h 02m	99%	74%
American Details →	TPA 07:15 → CLT 09:07AA 2538	1h 59m Charlotte	CLT 11:06 → HPN 13:13AA 5180 · flown by PSA	5h 58m	95%	73%
American Details →	TPA 06:56 → DCA 09:22AA 2385	3h 37m Washington	DCA 12:59 → HPN 14:30AA 5254 · flown by PSA	7h 34m	100%	72%
Delta Details →	TPA 15:18 → ATL 16:54DL 1525	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 19:59 → HPN 22:25DL 1616	7h 07m	96%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	TPA 15:29 → CLT 17:17AA 2915	1h 03m Charlotte	CLT 18:20 → HPN 20:29AA 5016 · flown by PSA	5h 00m	71%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON